Comments on: 4th CD – It could be enough…

By: westport44

westport44 — Fri, 04 May 2007 20:35:52 +0000

In respect to Bill Finch in Washington, isn’t he a criminal? Didn’t he get into a bar-fight in Storrs? Guess it wouldn’t make him any different than some other Congressmen.

By: spazeboy » Blog Archive » Another Sunny Saturday

spazeboy » Blog Archive » Another Sunny Saturday — Sat, 24 Mar 2007 19:28:41 +0000

[...] Since that time, another Democrat named Jim Shapiro has stepped forward, showing an interest in challenging Chris Shays in ‘08. I met Shapiro this week in Hartford, and his eagerness to engage the local blogosphere impressed me. As a resident of the fightin’ fifth, I don’t know how much I’ll be writing about the race in the 4th CD, but the amazing Maura has provided a handy round-up of People-Powered Media reports on the potential Democratic challengers: MLN (Maura): More Great Players Take the Ice CTLP (Genghis Conn): Rep. Shapiro May Jump Into CT-04 Race MLN (Maura): Mr. Himes Goes to Washington?” MLN (Maura): Richter Passes, Himes Runs With Puck MLN (mattw): On Primaries MLN (Jon Kantrowitz): Jim Himes for Congress? CTLP (CGG): Meeting With Jim Himes CTBob: A Visit with Jim Himes MLN (mattw): Jim Himes – Out of the Dark, Time For Democrats to Lead MLN (thomashooker) Jim Himes Slams Neocon Chris Shays Swing State Project: Chris Shays vs…Mike Richter? CTLP (Gabe): 4th CD – It Could Be Enough…” and, of course, a collection of great diaries on Chris Shays here at MLN. [...]

By: jsrgnt

jsrgnt — Fri, 09 Feb 2007 05:04:13 +0000

I really think Bill Finch should give a run for Congress another shot. He does an outstanding job representing his district in Hartford, and I truly believe he outworks every other State Senator. Would he win? Maybe, maybe not, but I’m certain he could run circles around Ned Lamont. He is much more moderate than Farrell or Lamont, and stuck with Lieberman in 2006. I think with some effort, he would even be able to pick up Lieberman’s support against Shays. Finch is one of Connecticut’s best legislators, and the 4th CD would be lucky to have him in Washington.

By: CTYankee

CTYankee — Thu, 08 Feb 2007 11:04:05 +0000

Had Lieberman won the primary, Farrell would be in the House right now – which is a nice way of saying that a Lamont candidacy is a joke for the fourth district. I’ll go out on a limb here and say, were he to face a tough primary challenger, he would lose …

By: Wilbur Cross

Wilbur Cross — Wed, 07 Feb 2007 15:45:43 +0000

A shame. Malloy would beat Chris Shays like a rented mule. Too bad he’s too ambitious. Lamont’s maybe the only Dem not surnamed Farrell who could lose to Shays in the 4th. How about Sens. MacDonald or Finch?

By: Genghis Conn

Genghis Conn — Wed, 07 Feb 2007 13:34:31 +0000

Malloy wants to be governor. Period.

By: CGG

CGG — Wed, 07 Feb 2007 12:46:37 +0000

Malloy has made it very clear to anyone who asks that he has 0 interest in running for Congress.

By: Phaedrus

Phaedrus — Wed, 07 Feb 2007 04:01:10 +0000

Sadly, unless Malloy runs–and i doubt he will–, Shays will probably coast to reelection in 08.

By: jsrgnt

jsrgnt — Tue, 06 Feb 2007 20:47:30 +0000

I’m not sure many Lieberman voters, if any, will support Lamont against Shays. Lieberman’s supporters were voting for moderation and against the fringe of either party. (I’m not saying that’s what they got. It’s what they wanted.) Shays is without question more moderate than Lieberman, and I think he’ll retain the support he had in 2006, and possibly win over some Farrell voters who view Lamont as part of the party’s fringe.

If I was Ned Lamont, I wouldn’t touch this race with a ten foot pole, or ten million dollars.

By: demsin08

demsin08 — Tue, 06 Feb 2007 19:44:24 +0000

That I won’t dispute at all. However, I think the seat is Shays’ until he decides to step back. He’s been there too long, and has an image built up around him that is very difficult to pierce.

That being said, I’d love to see all 5 districts send Democrats to Congress. I just don’t think it can happen yet.

By: Genghis Conn

Genghis Conn — Tue, 06 Feb 2007 19:38:57 +0000

Maybe the lesson of Diane Farrell’s candidacies is that Shays can’t be beaten on Iraq alone.

The 4th isn’t trending Shays’ way–in fact, quite the opposite. He is required to be the most moderate and inoffensive of Republicans to win there. The next U.S. Representative from the 4th will be a Democrat. Whether that happens in 2008 or later is largely up to Shays.

By: demsin08

demsin08 — Tue, 06 Feb 2007 19:08:16 +0000

It’s not that the 4th is trending Shays’ way. It’s that in the most anti-Republican year, he still managed to win. He was vulnerable in 2006. What will Ned’s platform be on? Shays is out of power. Any bit of pork he brings back is still something he can lord over him.

The problem is, he always brought back the minimum and that didn’t make people kick him out. That won’t change under a Democratic house.

By: Grumpy

Grumpy — Tue, 06 Feb 2007 19:06:25 +0000

Obviously Lamont would start out well behind Shays. Shays beat Farrell by something like 6k votes and Lamont trailed her total by another 15k or so. One thing about the 2006 4th district race is that Lieberman’s coattails very likely won the day for Shays.

My guess is that Lamont would trail Shays 43-57 if a poll were conducted today. But if 2008 is another strong year for the Democrats, a well financed Democrat with strong name recognition could turn the tables on Shays and ride the party’s presidential candidate’s coattails to a narrow victory. That’s one argument for why a Lamont candidacy passes the laugh test. Another is that I don’t see a stronger alternative candidate in the wings.

Although for some inexplicable reason, the phrase “third time’s the charm” pops into my head whenever I hear Diane Farrell’s name.

Whatever happens in the 4th, my money is on Joe Courtney beating Rob Simmons in their rematch providing the most entertainment (for Democrats) among the 2008 congressional races.

By: TrueBlueCT

TrueBlueCT — Tue, 06 Feb 2007 19:01:05 +0000

Don’t worry Genghis. I can take it from morons like RealityBites.

When they start in with the ad hominems, it is only b/c they can’t reply substantively. What makes anyone think the 4th is trending Shays way?

By: Genghis Conn

Genghis Conn — Tue, 06 Feb 2007 18:42:56 +0000

(ahem! no insulting other posters!)

By: RealityBites

RealityBites — Tue, 06 Feb 2007 18:20:17 +0000

True Blue- You really raise the level of debate here. Congratualtions on being the only consistently obnoxious poster on this blog.

By: TrueBlueCT

TrueBlueCT — Tue, 06 Feb 2007 17:47:02 +0000

I predict any Dem can beat Shays in 2008. CT voters aren’t dumb. They tend to vote their self-interest.

What will become obvious over the next two years is that when it comes to bringing home the bacon, Chris Shays will prove worthless in a Pelosi-led Congress. A freshman Democrat, otoh, would receive generous support going forward.

What consistently amazes me is that FFLD County folks tolerate their extreme traffic woes. Where is CT’s “Big Dig”?

By: demsin08

demsin08 — Tue, 06 Feb 2007 17:14:16 +0000

CGG -

Voters in the 4th will NOT tolerate a campaign beginning now. In fact, if he started actively campaigning before March of 2008 he would be in big trouble.

The amount of campaign material that landed in the 4th, from Ned, Joe, Chris, and Diane was enough to drive the 4th insane. He has to wait to begin. It’s simply a matter of voters being sick of politics in the 4th for the time being.

Ned has a mountain to climb – he’s a known quantity, but not in the ways taht will help him get elected in the 4th. He can’t start changing that perception for some time. He can raise money, learn about the issues, but that’s about it. This isn’t the time to campaign.

By: CGG

CGG — Tue, 06 Feb 2007 17:08:28 +0000

Demsin08, one of Lamont’s first priorities would have to be reintroducing himself to the voters. If Joe Lieberman’s campaign themes can change so drastically from the primary to the general, Ned can do the same in two years. Ned isn’t a natural campaigner, but he is a likable guy. If voters in the 4th really had the opportunity to get to know him (and they would if he started NOW) I think they’d feel comfortable with sending him to congress in 08.

By: demsin08

demsin08 — Tue, 06 Feb 2007 16:56:30 +0000

You must be kidding me. How on earth is Lamont going to beat Shays when he couldn’t even come close to winning the 4th in the Senate race? Also, it’s no stretch to say that Lamont would win Norwalk, Stamford, and Bridgeport. The question is, will he win by enough to offset what will happen in the other 13 towns?

Lamont will be portrayed as a leftist, someone that won’t appeal to the U’s in any of the towns of the 4th. Farrell did well in some of the more Republican towns (for a Democrat). With the kind of support that Lamont will get in those towns alone he will get clobbered.

Lamont doesn’t yet have the mainstream appeal to pull in U’s. How hard will it be for him to become mainstream? No one knows, because for the average CT voter, Lamont means anti-Iraq, and that’s it. Clearly, that won’t work with a Democratic majority in the House now.

I’m sorry to say, Mr. Lamont will not be going to Washington in the 4th CD.