Connecticut Local Politics

Chris Shays and Jim Himes are trading barbs over the economy, and who is best equipped to cope with the current crisis:

“They’ll be choosing between a guy who spent 12 years on Wall Street and who understands financial services … and a guy who utterly and completely failed in his oversight obligation,” Himes said.

The Shays camp bristled at the charge.

“For Christopher, the current economic situation and the triggers and causes of it are something he’s been warning about since 2002,” said Shays campaign manager Michael Sohn. “This is an issue Chris Shays has been warning about and screaming about for a long time.” (AP)

Which is sort of true, Shays did warn about Fannie and Freddie before the crisis hit.

So here’s the question: which one does the economic crisis actually help?

Himes’s line here is that he’s been on Wall Street and understands the financial system. That’s a double-edged sword–he may not want to remind voters of his Wall Street past too much! After all, many Americans blame the financial sector Himes came from for the collapse. Himes hasn’t been at Goldman Sachs for a while, however, which could immunize him against the toxic political clouds rolling out of New York.

Shays, on the other hand, has been in Congress for a long time as a member of the party that is taking an awful lot of the blame for the crisis, mostly thanks to their championing of deregulation and having been in charge of at least one branch of government for the past fourteen years. However, Shays has been able to keep enough distance from the Bush administration and the GOP leadership to hang on to his seat in two successive close elections–so he may be able to deflect enough of the blame and anger hold on this time, as well.

I think the economic crisis will eventually benefit Himes, because people definitely aren’t happy with the status quo. Obviously, this dissatisfaction is helping Barack Obama on the national level against the Shays-like John McCain. However, it’s hard to say if Himes will be able to ride economic issues to victory. Polling, inconsistent though it has been, has not been good for him. This is a race that should be closer than it seems to be right now.

One other thing that may help Shays a lot is that Iraq is barely being mentioned this year. This was the issue that led to two near-upsets in 2004 and 2006, after a long string of strong Shays victories. On the economy, Shays is a lot less obviously tied to the Bush administration and its policies than he was over the Iraq War, which he was firmly and unapologetically in favor of.

Himes is appearing on Face the State this weekend. Shays was invited to appear on the program, but declined.

Source
“It’s all about economy for Shays, Himes.” Associated Press 11 October, 2008.