There’s been no official announcement, but David Cappiello has a website, and it says “Congress” on it. It went live yesterday. Therefore, I’m going to assume that he’s actually in.
Cappiello is probably planning on running as a moderate-to-conservative Republican, and I don’t think he’s going to have George W. come campaign for him. Here’s a recent statement on the Scooter Libby mess:
“I think that the president should allow the courts to do their job and not interfere by injecting politics into the situation,” said Republican state Sen. David Cappiello of Danbury.“This is one of the reasons that people get frustrated and feel a distrust for politicians,” he said. “One can agree or disagree with the sentence, but that’s a job for the courts to decide, not for politicians.” (AP)
A moderate Republican can win in the 5th, history tells us. But can Cappiello defeat Murphy? The evidence suggests that Cappiello is facing a much more difficult fight than Murphy faced in 2006.
Let’s compare the two races. First, both Cappiello and Murphy came to the race as state senators, but with vastly different electoral experiences. Cappiello has not faced a serious opponent in recent memory, and has only been opposed by a Democrat twice (1998, 2004) in the last decade. Murphy, on the other hand, won a narrow race against Republican Ann Dandrow in 2002 (although his race in 2004 was much easier), and, of course, defeated Nancy Johnson in another hard-fought contest. Murphy is used to difficult races, while Cappiello is not.
Second, Nancy Johnson was a much different opponent for Murphy than Murphy will be for Cappiello. Johnson seemed surprised by the strength of Murphy’s challenge, and she came into the race already weighed down by her long incumbency, her authorship of a Medicare bill that seniors didn’t care for, and her support for an unpopular war. Murphy, on the other hand, has relatively few negatives at this point in time, and will definitely not be caught unawares as Johnson was.
Third, although Cappiello knows Murphy from the senate, Murphy had a much more detailed knowledge of Nancy Johnson and her campaign tactics coming in to his race from being the campaign manager for Charlotte Koskoff–who almost defeated Johnson in 1996.
Fourth, and maybe most importantly, incumbents are damn hard to knock off. Murphy was helped by strong national winds and an incumbent whose campaign melted down. We don’t know what 2008 is going to look like yet, but chances are we won’t see a strong Republican tide in Connecticut.
It isn’t all bad news for Cappiello. He’s well-known in his own district and can point to a long record as a moderate in the senate. He also may benefit from the fact that this map is new, and that it can be changed back to the way it was. There are obviously plenty of voters willing to vote for a moderate Republican.
But for Cappiello, as for Sean Sullivan, it’s going to be an extremely difficult fight.
Source
“Bush commutes Libby’s sentence.” Associated Press/Danbury News-Times 3 July, 2007.
72 responses so far ↓
I think the general feeling is that this run will be a good resume-builder for Cappiello — with a pretty strong Democratic tide in ‘08, Bush still in office and Murphy still cutting an appealing profile, Cappiello won’t make much headway in a left-leaning district like the 5th.
I want see Cappiello’s Q2 numbers before I give him much respect.
Having seen him on TV via YouTube, I will say that he is a good talker. And I was surprised to see him call the Iraq War a “complete mistake”. So at least he has some political sense.
But most of his point-making against Chris Murphy was railing about “pork”. So, I guess like Shays, Cappiello wouldn’t be about bringing home the bacon.
There are a few other things to consider which should not go overlooked.
Murphy’s ability to GOTV was remarkable in Danbury, a city where the mayor campaigned very hard for Johnson. Murphy’s campaign worked tirelessly with their door-knocking campaign and his 40 days for 40 cities was also a huge success. After the election, the feedback I received from people in the area was that whether they liked him or disliked him, people respected Murphy for at least taking the time to hear their concerns and that speaks volumes.
Also, Murphy’s website was second only to Lamont’s in terms of providing information to the public and raising money online and Murphy learned early on about the the potential of online media. Using all the tools at your disposal (including blogs, online media) was something Johnson didn’t understand opting to irritate people with her annoying robo-calls.
In 2006, Murphy was able to beat Johnson on every voting machine in Danbury, an area where Mark Boughton and Cappiello campaigned hard for Johnson (her office is in Danbury). Murphy really beat Johnson by a pretty wide margin and he’s been VERY visible in the Danbury area since November (he’ll be in Danbury to meet residents on Friday). Although I have no real big problems with him, I just don’t think Cappiello has that much of a chance in a district as large as the 5th but running in ‘08 will be a great thing for his resume…too bad he jumped into the race BEFORE DeLuca resigned (I’m sure he’s kicking himself in the pants over that right now).
The NRCC would do better focusing their attention on the 2nd and 4th CD. With Courtney winning to the slimmest of margins and Shays still cheer leading this war, the Republicans are going to have a enough on their plate and should focus their attention on grabbing back the 2CD and holding on to the 4th.
Ditto on what CT Blogger said. Murphy is one hell of a campaigner. I can’t see the NRCC wanting to spend a lot of money on that particular race, especially when you consider how much money he’s raised since taking office.
Ctblogger…
I think Sean Sullivan’s campaign in CT-2 is in serious trouble.
They have only raised $30,000. Thats a real poor first quarter.
As for the NRCC, they just not going to throw money around at races next year.
The NRCC is also in poor financial shape right now, trying to pay off a $7 Million Debt. They had $2 Million on hand at the beginning of the month.
The NRCC will be looking for candidates that can fundraise. I think Sullivan’s campaign won’t rise to that challenge.
I also think David Cappiello will surprise you when he releases his 2Q numbers. My sources tell me that Nancy Johnson sent a fundraising appeal out for him.
Cappiello’s race has the makings of a sleeper race that could flip from Dem to Republican, should conditions get better in 2008.
[quote comment="15039"]too bad he jumped into the race BEFORE DeLuca resigned (I’m sure he’s kicking himself in the pants over that right now).[/quote]
What do you mean here? McKinney was always the heir apparent.
The NRCC has added Chris Murphy to its targeted list of 26 endangered Democrats.
http://www.therealdemocratstory.com/chris.murphy
Geez, what a nasty attack piece. Fuck you, NRCC, for being such douchebags, and a big fuck you to anyone else, R or D, who puts out this crap. They apparently learned nothing from Nancy Johnson’s meltdown here in CT.
Gengis…
Thats pretty strong stuff.
The DCCC is doing the same stuff to Republicans.
[quote comment="15054"]Geez, what a nasty attack piece. Fuck you, NRCC, for being such douchebags, and a big fuck you to anyone else, R or D, who puts out this crap. They apparently learned nothing from Nancy Johnson’s meltdown here in CT.[/quote]
Well well, we know who Genghis supports for CD-5 in 2008.
[quote comment="15056"]Gengis…
Thats pretty strong stuff.
The DCCC is doing the same stuff to Republicans.[/quote]
I know it. And I can’t stand that crap, either.
Sorry. I don’t think I’m in the mood for the usual nonsense today.
I always thought that to be one of Linda Ronstadt’s better songs.
[quote post="713"]Well well, we know who Genghis supports for CD-5 in 2008.[/quote]
I don’t support anybody. It’s not my district. I’m just sick of dimwitted attack politics. I mean, seriously. Look at that thing.
>> >> The DCCC is doing the same stuff to Republicans.
>> I know it. And I can’t stand that crap, either.
Really? Where is the DCCC doing “the same stuff to Republicans”?
Weicker Liker made an assertion, Genghis Conn agrees — but where are the dimwitted attack ads from the Ds?
For example:
http://www.dccc.org/republican_reruns/jeb_bradley_rerun/
I’m glad to see that the NRCC is exposing the truth about Murphy. When Giuliani wins Connecticut in the General Election next year, apparently some people (as per the posts from above) do not believe that Republicans in Connecticut will benefit from it. Giuliani’s focus on fiscal discipline will not fit well with the disggusting over-spending in CT? LMAO at those who don’t like to see Murphy’s truths exposed …
[quote comment="15056"]Gengis…
Thats pretty strong stuff.
The DCCC is doing the same stuff to Republicans.[/quote]
Can we see an example please?
[quote comment="15062"]>> >> The DCCC is doing the same stuff to Republicans.
>> I know it. And I can’t stand that crap, either.
Really? Where is the DCCC doing “the same stuff to Republicans”?
Weicker Liker made an assertion, Genghis Conn agrees — but where are the dimwitted attack ads from the Ds?[/quote]
I believe THIS qualifies as the “dimwitted crap” from the left…
http://www.dccc.org/news/electronic_media/lawanddisorder/
[quote post="713"]I believe THIS qualifies as the “dimwitted crap” from the left…
http://www.dccc.org/news/electronic_media/lawanddisorder//quote
That doesn’t even begin to compare with the NRCC’s hit site on Murphy.
Or, a little something closer to home:
http://www.dccc.org/republican_reruns/rob_simmons_rerun/
Well of course not. Not to you.
Both sides hit below the belt. If you are claiming that Democrats are alone taking the high road… well that would be ridiculous.
For libs, hate speech attacking Republicans is “common sense” and exposing truths which reflect negatively on Democrats is enough to cause CTLP moderators to throw the f-bomb around a bunch of times … fascinating exposure … LMAO …
[quote comment="15077"]Or, a little something closer to home:
http://www.dccc.org/republican_reruns/rob_simmons_rerun//quote
I can sort of see your point on Simmons. He isn’t even running. No point in keeping it up.
The Dems have their ways. Truth be told though, the Republicans are better at this sort of sheniganry. In my opinion. It is one of the reasons that the Dems are often seen as weak. They just aren’t as prepared to get deep down in the muck like some of the Repubs. I honestly believe it has a lot more to do with the diversity and lack of consensus to platform in the Dem Party than any moral high ground.
Okay. I’ve never done this on this site yet. But a lot of people have done this lately and gotten away with it.
I’m going to swear.
SHIT!
Oh my God!
Oh my virgin ears!
LOL
LOL!!!
More info on Cappiello’s run:
The “Thank you” page of the website (after you submit your e-mail to them, or as I did, muck around in the source code to get the URL), reads this at the bottom:
Committee to Elect DAVID CAPPIELLO CONGRESS, Mary Saracino Treasurer
It’s a little strange that the line’s not quite that way on the home page, but w/e.
[quote comment="15089"]SHIT![/quote]
piss, f–k and corruption!!!!!!!
[quote comment="15095"][quote comment="15089"]SHIT![/quote]
piss, f–k and corruption!!!!!!![/quote]
I saw that band in a bar in New Haven a couple months ago.
I thought you righties were afraid of the all the crime in New Haven!!!
[quote comment="15101"]I thought you righties were afraid of the all the crime in New Haven!!![/quote]
Only in certain areas
It was probably at Toads. York St. is close enough to Yale to be safe
[quote comment="15101"]I thought you righties were afraid of the all the crime in New Haven!!![/quote]
What you expect consistency? Are you new?
DeStefano’s Murder Hole, Headless dubbed it. In a silly hit piece that pointed out shootings are up, but the overall murder rate is down.
Can we have a predicition thread? I’m guessing Crappiello raised little more than $100K, and that Himes brought in something in the range of $200-$250K.
Today is the 5th, and I wonder why the numbers haven’t been released, or even hinted at. Perhaps Himes is waiting for next Monday when people get back from vacation??
Plus do you think it’s a liability that Cappiello has called Iraq “a mistake from Day One”? He’s on the air, here, saying that the entire Middle East has been made a shamble, and that Daddy Bush was right not to invade Iraq. Will the NRCC actually help fund that message getting out?
My God, he even disparages Lisa Moody, saying she made a big mistake, and was then less than forth-right about it…. Wow!
I doubt Cappiello will raise 100k. He has been in session all this time he has not had a chance to raise some real money. Lets give the man some time to get movin I mean jeez he hasnt even offically announced yet.
[quote post="713"]Are you new? [/quote]
I like to think I am refreshing, cgg
and cgg, a couple fo more articles on the Fairfield GOP race for First Selectman. I heard this week that Johnny “come latley” Nelson was brought forward by Shays’ campaign manager, Michael Sohn. Shays stuck his nose in Darien two years ago and backed a candidate with a trumped up resume leading the race in that suburban GOP town to go to the Democrat, Evonne Klein. And we know what he did to Torres. I wish he’d stay out of town except to bring us whatever pork that we need
http://www.zwire.com/site/news.cfm?newsid=18553204&BRD=1653&PAG=461&dept_id=12717&rfi=6
http://www.zwire.com/site/news.cfm?newsid=18553236&BRD=1653&PAG=461&dept_id=12717&rfi=6
[quote comment="15094"]More info on Cappiello’s run:
The “Thank you” page of the website (after you submit your e-mail to them, or as I did, muck around in the source code to get the URL), reads this at the bottom:
Committee to Elect DAVID CAPPIELLO CONGRESS, Mary Saracino Treasurer
It’s a little strange that the line’s not quite that way on the home page, but w/e.[/quote]
What’s catches my eye is that Mary Saracino, the treasurer for Cappiello, is also a present member of the Danbury Common Council (At Large).
The important thing here? How can any person possibly claim to be moderate in any way, shape or form, and still be a member of today’s GOP?
That is the reality.
Yes… We have another real winner here, in a long line of typical GOP candidates:
What? No moderate call for him to step down? Just a “My friend is a good fella and deserves to to make his own choice after having his mob ties exposed…”
Good luck on this one GOP. BWAHAHAHA!
[quote comment="15114"]DeStefano’s Murder Hole, Headless dubbed it. In a silly hit piece that pointed out shootings are up, but the overall murder rate is down.[/quote]
So, this is a good thing?
More shootings but less murders.
Bad aim?
I wouldn’t be bragging about those stats….
Which reminds me…
Last week at a press conference on KLM’s international daily flight to Amsterdam (and hopefully we will see more international flights) Mayor Perez said that ‘Today, Hartford is flying high.’
Isn’t that always the case?
Dude, no one is bragging. New Haven is having a real problem with youth violence. Maybe you had to read HH’s diary to understand how god awful it was. (There was a reason he quickly took it down.)
[quote comment="15140"]Dude, no one is bragging. New Haven is having a real problem with youth violence. Maybe you had to read HH’s diary to understand how god awful it was. (There was a reason he quickly took it down.)[/quote]
Maybe DeStefano will run for Governor again so he can do for the state what he has done in New Haven.
[quote comment="15114"]DeStefano’s Murder Hole, Headless dubbed it. In a silly hit piece that pointed out shootings are up, but the overall murder rate is down.[/quote]
Blue, you keep repeating this, but I’m at a loss as to why? Do you think that the murder rate is somehow more indicative of safety than the shooting rate? If there are 100 shootings in New Haven and 30 result in a death, do you think that makes New Haven a “safer” city than if there were 100 shootings and 65 related in deaths?
The only difference is the aim of the drug dealers, criminals and felons. Not sure why you would choose to brag on that, unless you’re at a loss as to any other aspect of the city to trumpet. Which could be the case, come to think of it…
Nutty–
Across the board crime is down, except for the shootings. It’s a lot of teenager related violence, which is pretty damn difficult to control.
New Haven has run a program to identify at risk kids, and is doing major league reach-out, so I’m confident things will get better.
Thanks for your concern and support!
David Cappiello is probably the most well liked politician in Danbury. He has broad bi-partisan support and is a very credible candidate. At this point I do think that it will be very tough for him to pull off a victory, but having high popularity and attracting well to voters will go a far way. Don’t count him out at all.
Just for the record Lew Wallace, former State Rep. from Danbury, was treasurer for Theresa Gerratana’s bid for Congress when she faced Johnson in 2004, and he was currently still in the house.
http://query.nictusa.com/cgi-bin/qcom/
“Outside of the killings, Washington has one of the lowest crime rates in the country.” –Mayor Marion Barry, Washington, DC (1989)
“Across the board crime is down, except for the shootings.” — TBCT, Land of Confusion (2007)
You’re in good company, Blue.
Except you’re acting like an asshole Nutty. Everyone who lives here in New Haven knows how far we’ve come since DeStefano took office.
And you and Headless, your ‘winger best buddy, are trying to score cheap political points by playing to stereotypes.
ps– Current D.C Mayor Anthony Williams is a former New Haven alderperson. But maybe you don’t want to give D.C. and Williams credit for another great turn-around b/c of course we’re talking about…
Smurf will win by a comfortable margin when Mr. Cappiello has to explain why he accepted mob money campaign contributions. Maybe he will blame everything on Deluca?
[quote comment="15149"]Except you’re acting like an asshole Nutty. ..
And you and Headless, your ‘winger best buddy, are trying to score cheap political points by playing to stereotypes.
[/quote]
I notice there’s really only one person on this blog that can’t manage to discuss things without calling people profane insults. It’s the same person who thinks everything said to him is offensive, and violates his human rights.
I understand that TruBlue has filed charges against Nutmeg and I at the Hague.
Which stereotype would that be? The stereotype that murder kills people? If you are proud that murders in New Haven are down by 3, and rapes are down by 4, while shootings are up over 50%, well… congratulations. You’re setting the achievement bar pretty low.
Perhaps the three of of you could have a thread solely for the purpose of continuing these petty fights? Seriously, would that help? You all could kick and scream day and night and the rest of us wouldn’t have to read it.
Who was it who said, “If you can’t stand the heat, get out of the kitchen,” a Republican or Democrat? What’s politics with out a little fizz? CTKeith lives!!!
On the other hand, not every dispute shoulld degenerate into bud ball throwing. Balance is everything, but no one here is unbalanced (except accourding to you know you; see Healy) yet.
Blue, I posted this in the Catholic thread, but it’s probably more appropriate here:
[quote comment="15171"][quote comment="15117"]Fact is New Haven isn’t that dangerous, (no more so than driving down I-95), and we aren’t crazy to be living here.
But poverty breeds crime, and like Hartford and Bridgeport our police department has its hands full. Yet that’s no reason to run down a city like New Haven, particularly when it’s doing exceptionally well.[/quote]
Look, Blue, I live in Hartford, and sometimes people look at me like I’m crazy for living here, even though where I live is safer than a library.
However, I would be certifiably insane if I was to say that Hartford “isn’t that dangerous, (no more so than driving down I-95).” There are neighborhoods here that are as dangerous as any in the United States. In some areas of Hartford, you don’t want to be there after dark. In other areas, you don’t want to be there — ever.
That doesn’t mean that my neighborhood isn’t completely safe, because it is. But Hartford as a whole (and New Haven as a whole, and Bridgeport as a whole) can’t fairly be called “not that dangerous.” These cities are generally very troubled, and in need of radical social and economic change.
So, my question is, how is New Haven doing “exceptionally well”? By what standard — the higher number of shootings? The clown mayor whose gubernatorial campaign made Reagan-Mondale ‘84 look like a photo finish? The City’s intentional effort to flout federal immigration law? Like I said, I love living here, but I would not dare to say that Hartford is doing “exceptionally well,” and I don’t think that you can say the same about New Haven.[/quote]
Let’s see Dobb–
Crime down dramatically over the past twelve years.
Home ownership up.
Home values way up.
Unemployment down.
Graduation rates up 50%.
Downtown ka-booming.
Taxes in check.
Parks, phenomenal.
Yale relationships strong.
But none of that matters to you wingnuts who want to propagate stereotypes about a healthy city you know little about.
The surge is working…
http://www.cityofnewhaven.com/Police/e_forms/2006AnnualCrimeReport.pdf
In 1990 you had a 1 in 6 chance of being a victim of murder, rape, robbery, aggravated assault, buglary, larceny or auto theft in New Haven…16 years later it’s a much more comforting 1 in 12.
TBCT, as one who used to work in private security in New Haven, I can tell you first hand that there are some big problems with crime there. Anyone can turn on the news and see that NH and HTFD are both undergoing a sudden increase in violent crime.
Look, nobody here is denying that NH is a great culture and entertainment destination with some very nice residential neighborhoods (Chapel Street around Forest Road leaps to mind here), but you can’t deny that there are trouble areas. Seriously man, don’t take everything as a personal slight to you and your beloved NH. There are bad neighborhoods in Derby for Christ sake!
TBCT dishing out the insults but not being able to take even a challenge to anything he says is so typical self-righteous liberal.
Reminds me of a listener call-in show about fantasies that Faith Middleton had on her radio show maybe 10-11 years ago. Faith Middleton, the quintessential left-wing wackjob, had a fantasy of taking a gun and assassinating then Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich.
But ask Faithie if anyone else should have access to guns and she’d give you the day’s talking points straight from Handgun Control, Inc.
Uh, Icky. Chances of being killed on the road this year in Connecticut, about 1 in 10,000. (300-325 driving fatalities per year.) Chances of being murdered in New Haven if you aren’t involved in the drug trade? About 1 in 20-25,000.
And yeah, I can take a challenge. Sometimes I’m wrong.
But what I’m not wrong about is standing up to the prejudicial and ill-informed smears against my hometown of New Haven. Thank you very much!
So…..does it bother you that you have to distinguish between those involved in the drug trade and those who aren’t? Does the fact that statistics making that distinction are even compiled give you pause about crime rates in the Elm City?
It isn’t prejudicial or ill-informed to state the truth – I think that’s what Dobb was talkign about.
Save it with the implications of racism, classism or whatever else you liberal whack jobs like to intimate when you start feeling an argument slipping away from you.
I think Al Sharpton is a blow-hard. That doesn’t make me a racist.
I think Hillary is a calculating opportunistic and would be a disaster as a President. That doesn’t make me a misogynist.
I think Islamic extremism is very real and very dangerous. That doesn’t mean I’m close-minded.
And you know what? I think New Haven sort of sucks. And that doesn’t mean I’m a racist and it has nothing to do with my political affilliation. It’s my opinion. Remember when people were entitled to their own opinions even if they didn’t get them from that morning’s MoveOn.org email blast?
Capiello is no moderate. His positions on most things is hard right. He can’t win in the 5th.
What are his positions? The only things I know about him are that he is/was against the Iraq War and that he is pro-abortion. Sounds prety lefty to me.
Cappiello is far from being hard right.
Hey, anyone who can come out and say Bush was dead wrong, and also helped us take down Rowland, and will stand with us against the FIC freaks…..
[quote comment="15397"]Capiello is no moderate. His positions on most things is hard right. He can’t win in the 5th.[/quote]
Are you trying for a career in comedy?
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