Theres a year to go before the 2008 legislative elections, but its never too early to think about which races might be worth watching next year. The following list is based mostly on results from 2006. This metric was somewhat useful for the 2006 election, although there will be races that drop off this list, and new ones that will be added. You can also see the state senate list from last week.
In 2006, Democrats picked up several very narrow wins. Will they be able to hold on to those seats in 2008?
Heres the preliminary list:
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District 2
Bethel (part), Danbury (part), Redding (part)
2006 Results
Jason Bartlett (D) 54%
Phil Gallagher (R) 46%
This district was an open seat in 2006, but it had previously been held by a Republican. This district saw the closest race in the state in 2004 (in which Bartlett narrowly lost), so another close race is a definite possibility.
Leans Democratic
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District 16
Simsbury
2006 Results
Linda Schofield (D) 51%
Robert Heagney (i) (R) 49%
The difference between the Republican and Democratic lines in this races was 14 votes, although a cross-endorsement from the WFP helped drive Schofield’s margin up to 180. She defeated incumbent Robert Heagney to pick up a seat for the Democrats. I have to believe that the Republicans are going to campaign hard to get it back. I have a feeling that the Farmington Valley is going to be a battleground for a long time to come.
Toss-Up
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District 31
Glastonbury (part)
2006 Results
Thomas J. Kehoe (D) 51%
Susan Karp (R) 49%
In 2006, 66 votes separated Kehoe and Karp as they battled for an open seat. Kehoe became the first Democrat to represent this district since 1958. This is still a very Republican district, however.
Toss-Up
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District 34
East Hampton, Middletown (part)
2006 Results
Gail K. Hamm (i) (D) 51%
Bill Devine (R) 49%
Another close race! Democrat Gail Hamm survived a strong challenge from businessman Bill Devine by 87 votes to win a fifth term. This area seems to be trending Republican lately, so expect another close one here.
Toss-Up
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District 41
Groton (part)
2006 Results
Elissa T. Wright (D) 52%
Heather Sherman Bond (R) 48%
Elissa Wright won the weirdest primary in the state in 2006, in which the results showed that she had tied with Rita Schmidt. The issue was settled with a coin toss, which Wright won. She then went on to win an open seat in a relatively close race. Wright, to her credit, worked to pass legislation doing away with the coin toss method of settling ties. Groton is always very much a swing town, so the race here should be hotly contested.
Leans Democratic
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District 50
Brooklyn, Eastford, Hampton, Pomfret, Woodstock
2006 Results
Sherri Vogt (D) 49%
Mike Alberts (i) (R) 51%
Rep. Alberts survived another close race in a district that seems to produce them (he won in 2004 by 44 votes).
Toss-Up
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District 61
Suffield, East Granby (part), Windsor (part)
2006 Results
Derek Donnelly (D) 49%
Ruth Fahrbach (i) (R) 51%
Fahrbach barely held off Donnelly in a district that almost never sees close races. Suffield is starting to trend Democratic, so another strong challenge to Fahrbach is very possible.
Leans Republican
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District 65
Torrington (part)
2006 Results
Paul E. Cavagnero (D) 49%
Anne L. Ruwet (i) (R) 51%
Ruwet, mother of Torrington mayor Ryan Bingham, survived another close race–winning by 62 votes. This was also a close race in 2004, and probably will be again in 2008. It’s worth noting that Ruwet’s margin of victory declined from 2004 to 2006.
Toss-Up
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District 77
Bristol (part)
2006 Results
Roger B. Michele (i) (D) 49%
Ron Burns (R) 51%
Republican challenger Ron Burns ousted incumbent Roger Michele by 145 votes in a rare Republican pickup. Bristol is a little hard to predict, so this could either be a close race in 2008 or not.
Toss-Up
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District 86
North Branford, East Haven (part), Wallingford (part)
2006 Results
Ashley Clow Joiner (D) 49%
Vincent J. Candelora (R) 51%
This was a tighter race than expected, as Joiner and Candelora vied to replace outgoing Minority Leader Robert Ward. However, this is still a strongly Republican area, so his chances of re-election are pretty good.
Leans Republican
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District 120
Stratford (part)
2006 Results
David Mooney (D) 46%
John Harkins (i) (R) 54%
Mooney very much made this a race in 2006, but Harkins did win handily. A lot depends on who the Dems put up here.
Leans Republican
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District 133
Fairfield (part), Westport (part)
2006 Results
Kim Fawcett (D) 53%
Cathy Tymniak (i) (R) 47%
In 2006, Fawcett surprised everyone with a convincing win over incumbent Cathy Tymniak.
Leans Democratic
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District 134
Fairfield (part), Trumbull (part)
2006 Results
Tom Christiano (D) 51%
Jack Stone (i) (R) 49%
Incumbent Jack Stone narrowly lost to Tom Christiano by 19 votes in 2006. This was the tightest race in the state in 2006, and will probably see another close contest in 2008.
Toss-Up
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District 147
New Canaan (part), Stamford (part)
2006 Results
William Tong (D) 53%
Donald Sherer (i) (R) 47%
Tong convincingly defeated incumbent Donald Sherer in 2006 to pick up a seat for the Democrats.
Leans Democratic
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District 151
2006 Results
Edward T. Krumeich (D) 49%
Claudia Powers (i) (R) 51%
Krumeich came close to incumbent Claudia Powers in Greenwich, of all places. But this is still the Republican heartland, even though another close race is a possibility for 2008.
Leans Republican
38 responses so far ↓
In 2006, Fawcett surprised everyone with a convincing win over incumbent Cathy Tymniak.
I wasn’t surprised at all by this one. And I won’t be surprised when she wins in 2008. The Republicans will put up a big fight, but Fawcett is incredibly popular.
The 134th should be interesting though. Christiano barely campaigned last time (some people claim he ran a stealth campaign. ha!) and, again I expect Republicans will fight to get the seat back
District 31
Glastonbury (part)
2006 Results
Thomas J. Kehoe (D) 51%
Susan Karp (R) 49%
In 2006, 66 votes separated Kehoe and Karp as they battled for an open seat. Kehoe became the first Democrat to represent this district since 1958. This is still a very Republican district, however.
Kehoe has not represented the district like long time Rep. Sonny Googins did. She was a compromiser, AKA moderate, where as he votes against his district and with extreme left of his party.
Fawcett was the only Democratic member of the Fairfield County Delegation to vote for the Democratic tax increases last year.
Not a Good Freshman Move!
I also heard she missed alot of votes, maybe she was scouting for Dodd in Iowa.
In the 151st District, Dolly Powers, who is deputy minority leader in the House of Representatives, lost by a razer-thin margin. Perhaps it has something to do with the fact that she’s been named one of the ten worst legislators on the environment by the Connecticut League of Conservation Voters. And since then her environmental record is almost as miserable. She’s one of the most anti-environment legislators in New England, which is no small matter in this part of the state which sits off of the most poluted section of Long Island. And let’s remember that Fairfield County is rated the 13th most ozone-poluted county in America out of more than 3,000 counties- no small feat considering that most of the other outrageously poluted counties are either in Southern California, Texas, or the chemical plant section of Louisiana.
Republicans in Greenwich are Republican, but increasingly detached from the right-wing extremism of the mainstream Republican Party. No Republican presidential candidate in Greenwich has garnered more than 53% of the popular vote in a general election since 1984. Despite George Bush’s favorite son status, Greenwich voted for McCain over Bush in 2000, as did all of New England Republicans. Democratic Chris Dodd received 60% of the town’s overall vote for reelection in 2004, even though the town is nearly 2:1 Republican. And in the election for Representative Town Meeting members, former Democratic first selectman candidate Peter Berg received the highest number of votes of any candidate in the town. While the town went for Lieberman in the general election (Democrats turned out in record numbers to give nearly 70% of their vote to Lamont in the primary), he probably wouldn’t be re-elected in this town today.
Sorry, I meant to write that Dolly Powers won by a razer-thin margin last year. She’ll lose to Ed Krumeich, a very popular guy locally and enormously able individual, in a rematch by a large margin next year.
[quote comment="22701"]Sorry, I meant to write that Dolly Powers won by a razer-thin margin last year. She’ll lose to Ed Krumeich, a very popular guy locally and enormously able individual, in a rematch by a large margin next year.[/quote]
What do you think is going to change people’s minds from 2006?
And in Greenwich a variable may be Rudy Giuliani… if he’s on the ticket, Republicans in Fairfield County might get a boost.
[quote comment="22702"]
And in Greenwich a variable may be Rudy Giuliani…[/quote]
I’m beginning to wonder whether we might be overblowing his impact in Connecticut. If Rudy’s going to win this nomination, or get a place on the ticket, he needs to pretend he’s a conservative. By the time these primaries are through, I highly doubt Mayor Giuliani will look like the kind of Republican who can do well in any part of Connecticut.
Also, whether you’re in the bluest or reddest of states, people appreciate authenticity. As far as electablity come next November, I’d give Huckabee the edge over a hundred Giulianis and Romneys. People aren’t necessarily looking for an ideological departure from Bush – they want a change to someone who’s honest and sincere. A candidate like Huckabee will have an advantage – even in Connecticut – over someone who seems so eager to compromise his principles.
For Connecticut Republicans, Huckabee might be more helpful than Giuliani? That’s absurd. Giuliani is incredibly popular — he’s viewed as more of a moderate, even socially liberal. Connecticut’s bias is in favor of social liberals. Huckabee’s viewed as a former Baptist minister, not exactly a social liberal.
The desire to shoot down Giuliani is obviously outright fear of Giuliani as the Republican candidate.
Change District 77 to Leans Democratic… Democrats outnumber Republicans in 77 by approximately 69% – 31%.
Burns was barely able to carry the district based on his personal ties in town plus voter reaction to Roger Michele’s personal beef with the NAACP and the Bristol Police Department.
In a Presidential year with that many more voters turning out, Burns will go down in defeat to the Democrat.
[quote comment="22705"]For Connecticut Republicans, Huckabee might be more helpful than Giuliani? That’s absurd. [/quote]
The only way he wins the nomination is to appeal to social conservatives. If he does what it takes to win the Republican nomination, I don’t think he’ll be nearly as popular in Connecticut.
By the way, cranemeister, I’m not afraid of a strong Republican candidate. I hope Mike Huckabee is the next President of the United States. I am, however, afraid of Rudy Giuliani as the next President. He’ll make Bush’s abuse of his power look like nothing.
I think a lot of those races were close because of the Democrat presidential sweep and were not because of local issues or the candidates. Most people have no clue who their state rep is.
That will hopefully not be a factor in 08.
The fact that Mike Alberts weathered the storm suggests to me he is a strong candidate.
Vought will not have the same advantage next year if she runs again.
The 50th is a Republican district. More actual Republican voters than Democrat.
Alberts is also a top notch representative.
John McCommas- There was no presidential election last year.
I’m glad to hear that someone in Connecticut hopes to have Mike Huckabee as the next President of the United States. Huckabee’s not my first choice, but he’s definitely better than any of the Democrat candidates.
If anyone is interested in learning more about the campaign financing (at a state level) for ‘08, then you may be interested in this:
Public Training Session
Nov 20, 3pm, hearing room 1C
call Paige Adams at the SEEC to register – 860.256.2940
as for “hearing room 1C,” don’t ask… I have no idea… I’m guessing it’s in the LOB somewhere.
Tim,
The training has been moved to Room 1D and yes, it is on the first floor of the Legislative Office Building.
Why any Democrat would be gung-ho on taking out any more Republicans is beyond me. They already have a 107-member supermajority there that their Speaker cannot even control! Unless these are all Donovan shills– trying to add enough true left-wingers to the group so as to stage a coup next December.
In the 86th District do not overlook the fact that the two towns in it, North Branford and North Haven have just elected Democratic majorities, in North Haven’s case the first democratic first selectman in recorded history. Clow -Joiner is also on the North Branford Town Council.
My bad, I meant East Haven, not North Haven.
[quote comment="22718"]In the 86th District do not overlook the fact that the two towns in it, North Branford and North Haven have just elected Democratic majorities, in North Haven’s case the first democratic first selectman in recorded history. Clow -Joiner is also on the North Branford Town Council.[/quote]
The 86th district does not include North Haven.
North Haven went Democrat because the First Selectman did virtually nothing about corruption in his administration. He should have never run for re-election.
I’m thrilled Fontana was on that ticket in North Haven. Residents can now rest easy that bullhooks won’t be used within the confines of their berg. At least on elephants anyway…
[quote comment="22719"]My bad, I meant East Haven, not North Haven.[/quote]
Yeah, but the part of East Haven is pretty small in that district.
86th also has a piece of Wallingford which stayed GOP.
Connecticut already has an Office of State Ethics with authority to investigate and punish ethics abuses by legislators and other state officials. But the charges against DeLuca didn’t fall neatly into any specific category of ethical violation.
http://www.nhregister.com/WebApp/appmanager/JRC/BigDaily;jsessionid=wD8nHBfDq2CwwnYDLhQW7DyhqGPV21pD1LFV7NwBw7Y2SMrMPpvG!-664461728?_nfpb=true&_pageLabel=pg_article&r21.pgpath=%2FNHR%2FHome&r21.content=%2FNHR%2FHome%2FTopStoryList_Story_1125763
“There comes a time,” he said, “when a president can no longer rely on briefing books and PowerPoints, when the experts and advisers have all weighed in, when the sum total of one’s life becomes the foundation from which he or she makes the decisions that determine the course of history.
“No other candidate has my experience or the judgment it informs.”
Rudy really can’t say that but he is trying to. I don’t think the public in general will be that dumb.
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/11/19/us/politics/19mccain.html
[quote comment="22706"]Change District 77 to Leans Democratic… Democrats outnumber Republicans in 77 by approximately 69% – 31%.
Burns was barely able to carry the district based on his personal ties in town plus voter reaction to Roger Michele’s personal beef with the NAACP and the Bristol Police Department.
In a Presidential year with that many more voters turning out, Burns will go down in defeat to the Democrat.[/quote]
I think that Ron Burns has already done a fantastic job in his first session as a State Representative and the people of Bristol recognize and appreciate that fact. You are right about his personal ties in town, which are great and if his work in Hartford is any indication, he is going to work hard to maintain his seat. Let’s not forget that Burns was the only Republican to defeat a Democratict incumbent last year (Candelora won an open seat), next year he will have his incumbency and results for Bristol working in his favor.
[quote comment="22721"]North Haven went Democrat because the First Selectman did virtually nothing about corruption in his administration. He should have never run for re-election.
I’m thrilled Fontana was on that ticket in North Haven. Residents can now rest easy that bullhooks won’t be used within the confines of their berg. At least on elephants anyway…[/quote]
So then what you’re saying, is that Rell doesn’t stand a chance of getting re-elected!!! YES!!!!
Congressman Chris Murphy should be ashamed of himself.
http://www.myleftnutmeg.com/showDiary.do;jsessionid=82375AE03922888E6F6E41DDB629969D?diaryId=8552
Its sad that Murphy has taken all that money from greedy nursing home operators and has not spoken up for the old people!
Shame on him!!!!!!!!
I agree SimsburySally, after reading that it makes me think back to the ethics reform Murphy was so big about holding a press conference only to miss the vote.
To protect and take so much money from a company with that kind of track record is unbelievable and shows us who Congressman Murphy really is.
Genghis, it may be too early for this.
The scuttle is alot of Reps both R and D will retire due to 1) getting their ten years in, and being vested in the CT state employee health plan and 2) Public financing scaring many incumbent not use to being in close races.
And there you go who needs term limits.
SimsburySally,
Thanks for the link………….Hopefully a few will read it……… I long ago got off the Murphy supporter train to nowhere. I was fooled once, I won’t be again.
.
spartan_881
I stand corrected — The congressional sweep then.
You really can’t pretend that your original premise of a “Democratic sweep” influencing the outcome of the legislative races is valid when the top two races saw the Democrats lose.
It seems that voters have a strong preference for Democratic state legislators in Connecticut entirely apart from their preference in the top of the ticket race.
How about a list of the perceived safest house seats?
CT Dude, only close races are fun to cover — and what are elections for but to keep the media happy?
No Matt W.
We had two very popular congressmembers lose because of their stance on the War on Terror.
The little guys were swept out with the tide.
Rell is not a real Republican.
My premise is that it was a Democrat year. The anti war nuts got a majority in Connecticut. A big one. That’s why we have a liberal veto proof majority right now.
Alberts is a good man and a good rep. You will find no one better.
I have no other reason other than this sweep that he was ever in danger of getting voted out given its one of the few Republican majority districts in the state to some with hardly any experience.
Is it true Ashley Clow Joiner cried at a debate last year?
I heard Derek Donnelly works for Perez?
Sounds like a bad career choice, maybe he supervised the contractor!
[quote post="1208"]I have no other reason other than this sweep that he was ever in danger of getting voted out given its one of the few Republican majority districts in the state to some with hardly any experience.[/quote]
Actually, Mike Alberts had a pretty close race in 2004, too. He won by 48 votes. Before 2004, the district was held by a Democrat.
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