Connecticut Local Politics

We’ve been following the Dodd campaign around here, from that first “itch” through his announcement on Imus in the Morning, a long and often lonely campaign, and up through his all-too-predictable finish last night. So here’s the question: what went wrong? Why didn’t Dodd succeed? Or, rather, why did the candidates who are still in the race succeed when Dodd failed?

There are a lot of reasons. Let’s take a look:

No Ground to Stand On

Dodd positioned himself well to the left of most of the other candidates. He was outspoken on issues regarding Iraq, habeas corpus, FISA and others of great concern to the party’s left wing. But, despite getting at least some media attention for his efforts on these issues, he never had a moment where that segment of Democrats marched to his side. The voters Dodd was trying to court already belonged to Edwards, or to Kucinich or even Obama. When Dodd talked about his long experience in the Senate and tried to bill himself as the resume candidate, that ground was occupied, bizarrely, by Hillary Clinton, who has only held office since 2001, or in some cases by Richardson. Where was Dodd’s natural base of voters?

Something New

Each of the three major candidates had some sort of “wow factor” advantage in Iowa: Clinton had her husband’s legacy and the fact that she was the first major female candidate, Edwards had the organization he’d been building since 2003 and his national prominence from 2004, and Obama had Oprah, the fact he was the first African-American candidate with a real shot, and a ton of media exposure. Dodd was an old white guy from Connecticut, and no one really had ever heard of him before. Clinton and Obama were something new, and Edwards managed to portray himself as a classic populist outsider. Dodd wasn’t new, nor was he a convincing outsider. The narrative coming out of Iowa is that voters wanted change, and while Dodd’s message reflected that he could never get it past the “wow” factor of the big three.

Blame the Media

The story of 2007 for Democrats was Hillary Clinton’s inevitability, followed by Barack Obama’s off-and-on popularity and John Edwards’ continued existence. The media focused mainly on Clinton and Obama, with Edwards being a dark horse. They left little room for anyone else. Even here in Connecticut, the media never really took him all that seriously. Not a good sign.

The Big, Solid Three

We kept waiting this year for a “Dodd moment,” where he suddenly broke through the media wall and leapt to prominence. It never happened, because the race stayed remarkably stable at the top. The results absolutely reflect that; all of the available oxygen was taken up by Obama, Edwards and Clinton. Certainly the top three switched places, but none of them ever fell to fourth. No campaign suffered a crippling disaster. No one faded to fifth or dropped out. Even the money race reflected that. So the media, being a creature of habit, never really gave Dodd much of a look, or much of a chance. If there had been a lot of instability at the top, which is what happened on the Republican side, then Dodd might have been able to move up in the manner of Mike Huckabee. Maybe. But it didn’t happen.

The Schlesinger Cycle

People kept telling Alan Schlesinger that his ideas were great, but he had to get his numbers up above 20% before they’d consider voting for him. Of course, without the support of those people, he could never actually get to 20%. So he couldn’t be taken seriously if he wasn’t doing well in the polls, and he couldn’t do well in the polls unless people took him seriously. It’s a bad place to be in, and that’s just where Dodd was. He never cracked 2% in the polls. Never. He didn’t get a boost when he announced, and he never found a way to climb upwards after that. So he was ignored, because his poll numbers were terrible. Given all the other factors, it was a cycle he couldn’t escape.

Electable

Democrats want to win this cycle. They really want to win. In 2004, they lost with a pompous, big-haired U.S. Senator from New England was their candidate. Dodd wasn’t nearly as pompous or big-haired as John Kerry, but the idea of another New England senator (complete with our soothing, melodic regional accent) as their candidate must have seemed like going backwards. Plus, without a “wow” factor such as those described above, his chances must have seemed a lot more remote. Dodd’s poll numbers showed he wasn’t even guaranteed a win in Connecticut. Very bad.

Conclusions

In short, Dodd’s chances were short-circuited by his lack of national prominence, poor media coverage, stability at the top of the race and many other factors. Could he have done more to change that? Maybe. It’s hard to say. I think he did a decent job with what he had, but never got a real shot at the big time.

However, there actually were a lot of positives about Dodd’s run for the presidency. He helped shape the debate on a lot of issues of importance to him, and his campaign broke some interesting ground online. There has been talk of Dodd running for Majority Leader, which seems like a job that would suit him. He may find himself in the cabinet, should a Democrat win in 2008, or he may decide to come home and run for governor here. Who knows? Despite his loss, his stature has been raised inordinately nationwide. The future could still be pretty bright for Chris Dodd, even though he’ll never make it to the White House. And, in the end, that’s a good thing for us back here in Connecticut.