Okay, never mind. This American Research Group poll shows Clinton with the lead, 48%-35%.
Both polls surveyed about 600 likely Democratic voters on January 30-31. The upshot seems to be that Connecticut is very much in play, and it’s impossible to predict who will take more delegates on February 5th.
Both polls, by the way, show John McCain with double-digit leads. He is poised to take all of Connecticut’s delegates (CT is winner-take-all for Republicans).
29 responses so far ↓
ARG sucks. Just prior to election day in SC, they had Obama up just 3%.
http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres08/scdem8-714.html
CT Dem Super-Delegates and where they stand.
Rep. Chris Murphy– Obama
Rep. John Larson– Obama
Rep. Rosa DeLauro– Obama
Rep. Joe Courtney– Uncommitted
Sen. Chris Dodd– Uncomitted.
Sen. Joe Lieberman– Disavowed.
DNC Member Ellen Camhi– Clinton
DNC Member Steve Fontana– Obama
DNC Member Martin Dunleavy– Obama
DNC Member Nancy DiNardo– Uncommitted
DNC Member Anthony Avallone– Uncommitted
DNC Member John Olsen– Uncommitted
One to be elected later in March.
So that’s five for Obama, one for Clinton, Courtney?, Dodd and DiNardo remaing decidely neutral, Avallone & Olsen unknown, and one to be named later.
And links:
State-by-State delegate totals:
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P08/D-Alloc.phtml#Alph
Super Delegate watch:
http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/01/superdelegates-who-havent-endorsed.html
ARG has been consistently bad…
ARG does in fact have a worse track rate than SurveyUSA, which has often been pretty accurate. I’m guessing if the election took place today Obama would win–barely.
I just want to say that New Haven is getting pretty damn FIRED UP for this one. I wonder how big the turn-out will be….
BREAKING: NRCC back in the black. They now have, after debts, $2.6Million in the bank.
The DCCC? $33.8Million.
You Crappiello lovers better start sending him so dough, ’cause the NRCC won’t be giving him any help.
TrueBlueCT said:
….what saddens me is that David seems like a genuinely nice guy, (as compared to the CT GOP). ….
You should change your name to TwoFacedCT.
Ahh, David is a ‘genuinely nice guy…’ yet you continue with the ‘Crappiello’ shit.
Obviously, you are a partisan. So am I. But you do little for your cause — or yourself, by reverting to the name calling. Seems to me that would be a violation.
Reminds me of your Speaker-Governer-Wannabe Amann calling Rell Snow White, Prom Queen, etc… has certainly done alot to further his career.
I love how Ed played all nice when Cappiello was here then talks trash about him when he isn’t.
What a brave little man!
>>ARG: Clinton With Wide Lead
That’s not all she has that’s wide. Mua ha ha ha!
TrueBlueCT said:
Yes. You’re voting for McCain, right?
Actually HH, I’m not voting, since the CT for Lieberman party doesn’t have a primary. sniff..
Dude, I reserve the right to call DC “Crappiello” on a blog, and also think of him as a better than average Republican and prolly a decent guy.
If his campaign ever starts to impress, I’ll quit referring to it as crappy.
And why is the CT GOP showing him so little support? Murphy is by far the toughest nut to crack, and it’s not going to happen with chump change.
TrueBlueCT said:
Ha ha! Oh, man.. I love it!
If Obama raised $32million last month, I’m sure he’s spending some of it on some good internal polling. HRCs also got bucks… and good internal polls.
If they’re both showing up here on the day before the primary… it’s for a reason.
I’d guess they both have polls showing big numbers of “non-strong supporters” who they feel may still be swayed.
Finally, how does the CT Dem primary work? What are the critical numbers (getting 50% and or a plurality are not a bid deal, right?) they want to get?
Tim -
I will have a post on that very topic tomorrow morning!
cant dodd just follow the lead of Rep. Tong and endorse Obama?
At Yale with Ned Lamont and 120 FIRED UP undergrads. That’s 120 students on a Friday night. Wow.
Rumors that Hillary might be coming through on Monday.
I guess CT is moving up in the world.
Murphy for Přes in 2024!
The Hillary event, says Capitol Watch, is NOT going to be in Hartford. New Haven’s the obvious choice for her, I imagine.
CtRoadrunner said:
Quite rightly, he should.
But one thing I think we can all agree on is that Tong’s endorsement carries more weight anyway.
Tim White said:
Anyone over 15% gets delegates.
The candidate with the highest % gets assigned first for each Congressional District (5, 6, or 7 in CT depending on Democratic registration and performance), such that, if the primary results were 41, 40, and 19, it would go 3 delegates, 2 delegates, and 1 delegate to the 3 candidates. In a close race between two candidates, there are essentially 3 CD delegates up for grabs (1st, 3rd, and 4th).
After that, there are 17 delegates assigned based on statewide performance — in a close race, one of these will be up for grabs. To push this from a 9-8 split to a 10-7 split, the winner would need to get up to about 56%.
The CD-level delegates (again, for the dems) will be chosen at caucuses around the state for each candidate. The at-large delegates will be chosen from a single caucus of CD-level and super-delegates, along with convention officers and committee assignments.
There are really good breakdowns of delegate counts here:
D: http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P08/CT-D.phtml
R: http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P08/CT-R.phtml
TrueBlueCT said:
The NRCC may be in the black, but it has another big problem it seems…
Here is some more breaking news…from Roll Call.
Gabe… looking forward to it.
Matt… thanks… though that makes me reconsider the GOP position. I used to dislike the WTA process… but seeing that the Dems’ alternative is slightly more complicated than a Black Scholes option valuation… I’m no longer so opposed to our “I’m the most popular, so you all go home” approach.
Seriously, thanks… I’ll reread that and try to understand it… it does seem kinda complicated though.
I didn’t even include the affirmative action plan, which makes sure that each state sends a gender, race and age-balanced delegation
Probably for the best, I suppose.
I wonder who downrated my comment? Stay classy, conservatives.
Tim, what do you think of a Ron Paul 3rd-party bid? It’s looking increasingly likely — all that money raised, and he doesn’t seem to be spending it all that quickly.
matt w said:
Though I’m not Tim I expect it will happen whether RP likes it or not. It’s highly likely that the libertarians are going to draft him for their ticket even if they have to drag him kicking and screaming. If he doesn’t sweep on Tuesday and does run 3rd party I sure hope they give him debate time for his economic policy. I’ve been following his advice and making loads by getting out of the US dollar.
>>BREAKING: NRCC back in the black. They now have, after debts, $2.6Million in the bank
Meanwhile the DNC has: 2,960,804.99 on hand but owes 2,230,480.23 leving them just over 730K right side up.
The RNC on the other hand has: 17,352,467.11 and owes -0-
Last the DNC raised 53M while the RNC brought in 87.
Matt… dunno. But the first thing that comes to mind is whether the math adds up. Though CT doesn’t have a “sore loser” law, how many electoral votes (of the 535 or so) get DQed on that basis?
As for the money, yes he does raise boat loads (next to other Rs). In fact, while he raised more money each successive qtr in 2007… he’s continuing on that ever-increasing pace still.
If I recall correctly, he was at $2.7million at Oct 31. And he was around $4.1million at Jan 31… though he gets dwarfed by Obama.
If Obama is the nominee, I find it difficult to believe RP could win. Though I still think he could be HRC… if the issue is Iraq.
ACR… wow. Those numbers don’t get much publicity… and btw, my cell broke a couple weeks ago, but will be in touch. Sorry.
Tim - rattle my cage sometime today would ya?
860 919-8315
Why is it your name keeps coming up in Republican circles OUTSIDE (way outside) of Cheshire and in glowing terms?
Must that quick smile and friendly persona….
Connecticut — The Entire Democratic Nomination Battle Boiled Down to Its Essence: Few if any states present as perfect a microcosm of the Hillary Clinton - Barack Obama drama as does Connecticut. Men back Obama. Women back Clinton. Young voters back Obama. Older voters back Clinton. White voters split. Black voters back Obama. Hispanics back Clinton. Moderates back Clinton. Liberals back Obama. Voters focused on Health Care back Clinton. Voters focused on Iraq split. Voters focused on the Economy split. When all is added up, 4 days to the 02/05/08 Primary, it’s Obama 48%, Clinton 44%, within the survey’s 3.8 point margin of sampling error. Effectively tied. Given that 29% of voters say they may yet change their mind, it’s not just tied, it’s fluid. Obama leads in greater Hartford and New Haven. Clinton leads in the rest of the state. Relative turnout of men vs women, young vs old, white vs black, will largely shape the outcome.
Survey USA
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