Connecticut Local Politics

The general election is only a few months away, so it’s time to start thinking about which races are going to be the ones to watch this fall. From this vantage point, barring some sort of major shift towards the GOP in the next few months, it’s going to be difficult for the Republicans to make any sort of significant gains against the Democrats. The 4th still leans Democratic, though, and Anne Hatfield probably had a better shot against Andrew Maynard without the recent court ruling against the town of Griswold (see below).

The Democrats, however, have a couple of opportunities to poach Republican seats, with the House-Witkos race and the Musto-Russo race the two with the best chances of Democratic gains (Russo, remember, captured a Democratic seat in a special election, robbing the Democrats of their supermajority).

But really, the state senate map from 2006 probably won’t see much in the way of changes. Most senate districts seem to be built to keep their incumbents where they are.

(i) = incumbent

4th District (Manchester, Glastonbury, Bolton, Marlborough)

2006 Result
Mary Ann Handley(i) (D) – 22,087 (61%)
Stewart “Chip” Beckett (R) – 14,064 (39%)

This year Republican David Blackwell, who was once a state representative from Manchester, is facing incumbent Sen. Mary Ann Handley. Usually this is a safe district for Democrats, and it probably will be again, but Blackwell was supposedly pretty well-liked in his Manchester district. Plus, Manchester seems to have been drifting Republican lately on the municipal level, although that often doesn’t translate to state races. This one is worth a mention, but probably will stay in Democratic hands.
Leans Democratic
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7th District (Enfield, Suffield, Windsor Locks, Somers, parts of Windsor and Granby)

2006 Result
John Kissel (i) (R) – 16,979 (52%)
Bill Kiner (D) – 15,254 (48%)

John Kissel is a survivor who escaped very close races in 2004 and 2006 in good shape. This year he faces Suffield Democrat George Colli, who is still largely unknown in the region. However, the district’s demographics promise a close race.
Leans Republican
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8th District (Avon, Barkhamsted, Canton, Colebrook, Hartland, New Hartford, Norfolk, Simsbury, parts of Torrington, Granby and Harwinton)

2006 Result
Thomas Herlihy (i) (R) – 19,336 (51%)
Steve Berry (D) – 18,969 (49%)

This was the closest senate race in 2006, but neither competitor has returned for 2008. Democrat Arthur House of Simsbury faces State Rep. Kevin Witkos (R-Canton). House, currently a vice president at Webster Bank, has a long background in politics, having served as chief of staff to both Sen. Abe Ribicoff and Sen. Robert Byrd. Witkos easily won a primary against Moira Wertheimer of Simsbury a few weeks ago. He’s been in the House since 2002. This is a hard race to call. The Farmington Valley, which makes up the heart of this large and diverse district, is trending Democratic, but Witkos may be better known from both his service in the House and the recent primary.
Toss-up
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18th District (Griswold, Groton, North Stonington, Plainfield, Preston, Sterling, Stonington, Voluntown)

2006 Result
Andrew Maynard (D) – 15,107 (51%)
Lenny Winkler (R) – 14,275 (49%)

Maynard faces Republican Anne Hatfield, the former first selectwoman of Griswold. This was a close race in 2006, but probably won’t be so this time around. The Town of Griswold recent lost a wrongful firing lawsuit brought by a former employee of the town, who had been Hatfield’s secretary. The plaintiff stated that Hatfield had harassed and intimidated her. Not really a great way to kick off a campaign…
Leans Democratic
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21st District (Shelton, parts of Monroe, Seymour and Stratford)

2006 Result
Dan Debicella (R) – 16,476 (52%)
Christopher Jones (D) – 15,099 (48%)

Janice Andersen of Stratford is Debicella’s opponent this time around. Andersen is a member of the Board of Education in Stratford. Another difficult district to read right now, but Debicella did well in winning an open seat during a Democratic year in 2006.
Leans Republican
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22nd District (Trumbull, parts of Monroe and Bridgeport)

2006 Result
Bill Finch (i) (D) – 14,744 (54%)
Robert Russo (R) – 12,354 (46%)

Russo, who won a special election after Finch became mayor of Bridgeport, faces primary winner Anthony Musto of Trumbull. Turnout is the key to this race, and I’m guessing the turnout in Bridgeport will be through the roof due to the presidential race. Russo has a serious fight on his hands, and I’d be surprised if he hangs on.
Leans Democratic
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24th District (Danbury, New Fairfield, Sherman, part of Bethel)

2006 Result
David Cappiello (i) (R) – 100%
No Democratic nominee

This is an open seat in traditionally Republican territory. Democrat Duane Perkins faces Republican Michael McLachlan. Perkins recently won his primary race against Terry Tierney. McLachlan is an aide to Danbury Mayor Mark Boughton. Demographics suggest that Republicans will hold the seat, but it may come down to turnout and how the presidential race shapes up.
Leans Republican
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26th District (Redding, Ridgefield, Westport, Wilton, parts of Bethel, New Canaan and Weston)

2006 Result
Judith Freedman (i)(R) – 21,870 (56%)
Craig Rebecca Schiavone (D) – 17,467 (44%)

This is an open seat this year. State Rep. Toni Boucher (R-Wilton) faces Democrat John Hartwell of Westport. Hartwell was the treasurer for Ned Lamont’s run in 2006, and has attracted a lot of support from Democrats who supported Lamont. The demographics really do support Boucher–the district is made up of mainly GOP-leaning towns–but Hartwell may be helped by Obama and, perhaps, by Himes. We’ll see.
Leans Republican
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On the outside looking in

Some races that I’m not actively watching right now but could get interesting:

9th District (Cromwell, Newington, Rocky Hill, parts of Wethersfield and Middletown)
Sen. Paul Doyle (D) is facing Ralph Capenera (R)–again. Last time around it didn’t go so well for Campenera. He lost 59%-41%.

20th District (East Lyme, New London, Old Lyme, Salem, Waterford, parts of Montville and Old Saybrook)
Sen. Andrea Stillman, who won handily last time, is facing Waterford attorney and first-time office-seeker Thomas Simones.

31st District (Bristol, Plainville, Plymouth, part of Harwinton)
Sen. Thomas Colapietro (D) is facing Republican Joseph Geladino, who ran unsuccessfully for a city council seat in Bristol last year. Colapietro will probably win, but maybe there will be another fistfight or something.

36th District (Greenwich, parts of New Canaan and Stamford)
This is an open seat. However, it’s in Greenwich, so Republican L. Scott Frantz will have a heavy advantage over Stamford lawyer Mark Diamond.