As political gossip mavens continue to digest this morning’s Quinnipiac poll, one thing should emerge as perfectly clear: Ned Lamont, should he choose to enter the race as a candidate, is going to be a front-runner for the Democratic nomination for Governor.
Less than a week after announcing his exploratory committee, Lamont trails Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz by only 3%, just outside the poll’s margin of error. This doesn’t mean a lot until you look at where his support has come from:
Almost all of Lamont’s initial support has come from Bysiewicz, while those who are undecided are still undecided. The prospect of Lamont’s campaign is clearly something that inspires a lot of excitement among CT’s political diehards. The question now becomes whether he can turn this into a groundswell that swings undecideds–an aspect his campaign seemed to battle with during the general election phase of the 2006 race. A strong pro-jobs message, which seems to be shaping up as his focus, could probably do a lot of good on this front.
Its hard to read this poll as good news for anyone but Lamont, and to a lesser extent, Bysiewicz. Bysiewicz can still make the argument that she seems to be the most electable Democrat, but that issue may take a back seat for the first time in years with Rell’s announcement. Malloy’s numbers have done little but dwindle after a number of months in the race. It’s still very early, but its nonetheless no good to see your numbers leave the double digits and start to approach Amann territory. Speaking of Amann, his statement today boggled the mind, but that’s for another post.
4 responses so far ↓
ATalbot, I don’t know how you can read this poll and not think Bysiewicz as the presumptive nominee. Lamont is a one trick pony, and will not have the union support Susie B will have. Lamonr is her chief rival, but Susie B is out front by any measure.
I would argue that Bysiewicz’s losing 40% of her support just because Lamont filed some paperwork doesn’t constitute a good thing for her. She’s obviously still in the lead, but she’s nothing like a presumptive nominee.
Bysiewicz’s support from identified DEMS right now is from name recognition. That is why Lamont was able to take so much of her support. If the poll was of political activists, Malloy would be much higher, possibly ahead of the SOTS. Malloy has been working the Town Committees and the involved Dems since they are the folks that will be at the convention. After listening to both Malloy and Bysiewicz, there is no question that Malloy is the better candidate.
Chuck turns 29 today.
Happy Birthday Chuck!
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