The Cook Political Report, led by the intrepid prognosticator Charlie Cook, has changed their rating on Sen. Chris Dodd’s re-election effort from “Toss Up” to “Lean Republican”:
As a general policy, the Cook Political Report does not rate unindicted incumbents worse than “Toss Up,” at least until Labor Day of the election year since some endangered incumbents have a tendency to make comebacks despite appearing hopeless early in the cycle. There have been some rare exceptions to this policy over the years, and Dodd now joins that small group. The race moves from Toss Up to Lean Republican.
Wow.
The whole piece is worth a read, but simply put the message is this: stick a fork in Chris Dodd, he’s done.
If Chris Dodd has nightmares while he is asleep, the demons will have the faces of Chris Murphy and Dick Blumenthal on them.
12 responses so far ↓
That is very bad news for Dodd. Charlie Cook is not somebody who makes these type of determinations lightly. He’s also highly influential within Washington DC political circles on either side of the political spectrum.
The Dems should drop Dodd and run Murphy for his seat. Murphy would win, and would be there for as long as the Dems’ want. Blumenthal is on record saying he is eyeing Lieberman’s seat in 2012, makes sense.
Let’s be clear. If Dodd retires, Blumenthal, (aka Mr. 78%), is the one who will step in and put and end to the GOP circus. Murphy will wait his turn and will be the man against Lieberman in 2012, unless indiscretions get the better of him.
And Heath, if Dodd decides to retire in order to spend more time with his young daughters, there will be no nightmares. Dodd will retire a hero according to the party faithful.
However Linda McMahon will become pure comedy, overnight…”Hey Linda, are you enjoying your expensive but meaningless tour of Connecticut? How’s Putnam doing?”
“The Dems should drop Dodd and run Murphy for his seat.”
It’s misleading to speak of the Dems as if there were some sort of official Democratic delegation that could “drop Dodd.” John Bailey, who as party boss in Connecticut used to arrange party tickets in smoke filled rooms, has been dead and gone these may years. There is no such thing.
Dodd might be “dropped” in a primary. But neither of the two possible replacements mentioned here – Blumenthal and Murphy – have expressed any inclination to primary Dodd. Dodd might be “dropped” in a nominating convention. But in that case, Murphy or Blumenthal would have had to gather delegate votes, and there is no indication that either is in the process of doing so.
This means that only Dodd can “drop” Dodd.
There is some movement in this direction. Dodd is being urged by some activist and journalists to surrender his position to someone whose poll numbers are higher than his. Dennis House over at Channel 8 has speculated that someone other than Dodd (SOTD) might be better situated to hold the seat for Democrats. On this blog, Scooper has insistently proclaimed that Dodd should give way to Blumenthal.
But, that’s it.
Conclusion: Only Dodd can make such a decision. And he has not make such a decision.
Dodd says, “No, no. Still running,”
Dodd is no quitter and I can’t think of a better Democrat to head the ticket in 2010 than Chris Dodd.
Puffy
Don…John Bailey who died in 1975 wouldn’t have been able to “remove” Dodd either.Only Dodd can “remove” Dodd,unless he is removed by some internal party primary challenge and I havent seen anyone step forward yet who has the requisite gravitas.
Although no Senator of long standing would relish being beaten in a general election, it is still too early to be writing the epitath of Chris Dodd, who remains very popular with his base.In addition, it is still about 11 months away from the general election,an eternity in politics…just ask President Dewey…President Muskie…etc.
Don… John Bailey who died in 1975 wouldn’t have been able to “remove” Dodd either.
That’s right. But Bailey might have been able to arrange an effective visitation. Bailey has been replaced in Connecticut politics by Scooper and a handful of disparate, increasingly nervous party members and journalistic bean counters – who are far less effective in his kind of thing. You recall the impressive delegation that demanded Nixon’s resignation? That group would have been less effective today, because the parties have lost a good deal of their cache. Dodd — and many other incumbent politicians — is his own party. He has his own permanent campaign staff, his own money making finance operation … etc. I’ve written about this elsewhere many times.
Incidentally, I hope I did not say that Bailey, were he alive today, could have removed Dodd. I think I was saying that the age of bossism had passed with him, never to return.
Dodd’s not going to “retire” anytime soon IMHO.
First, Election Day is an eternity away. Anything can happen over the next 6 to 9 months.
There’s a GOP primary that’s gonna get nasty and nastier. And the economy could boomerang back into shape quickly.
I am sure Dodd’s plan is to take on a wounded GOP nominee. drop napalm on him/her and make the contest into “the lesser of two evils.”
I’d like nothing more than seeing this seat flip but politically I don’t see Dodd doing anything anytime soon.
>>I can’t think of a better Democrat to head the ticket in 2010 than Chris Dodd.
There’s not one Republican in all of America that would take issue with that statement.
Realistically, the clock is ticking on Chris Dodd’s retirement and probably has been for quite some time. The last thing someone with 35 years in Congress wants is to end their career with calls from within their own party to step down. And that is just what could occur if this drags on until the Democrats Convention in May. I suspect we’ll hear a surprise announcement over the holidays.
Man, 2-3 years ago, Chris Dodd thought there was a chance he could become President. I wonder what it’s like coming to the realization he might not be even a Senator anymore…
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